Estonia Weather: May 18 Brings Evening Thunderstorm Warnings
Weather conditions across Estonia are set to take a dramatic turn on Monday, May 18, 2026. While the new week started with relatively calm conditions, the Estonian Weather Service has now issued Level 1 thunderstorm warnings for multiple counties, effective from this evening into Tuesday morning.
Daytime Forecast: A Calm Start Before the Storm
The forenoon will remain mostly dry with slightly to partly cloudy skies. However, by around noon, cloud cover will begin thickening from the southeast as a rain system slowly spreads northwestward across the country.
- Winds: Mainly northern and northeastern, blowing at 3–9 m/s, with gusts reaching up to 12 m/s.
- Temperatures: Daytime highs will generally range between 15°C and 20°C, though the windward coast will remain significantly cooler, dropping locally to around 10°C.
Evening and Night: Level 1 Thunderstorm Warnings
By Monday evening, the risk of severe thunderstorms will increase significantly, moving from the southern part of the continent toward the northwest and north.
The Estonian Weather Service has placed several counties under a Level 1 Thunderstorm Warning. Residents should expect intensive rain showers, gusty winds, and the possibility of hail.
Warning Schedule by Region:
- Põlva, Tartu, Valga, and Võru counties: Valid from 20:00 tonight until 02:00 on May 19.
- Jõgeva, Pärnu, and Viljandi counties: Valid from 21:00 tonight until 07:00 on May 19.
Overnight, the thunderstorm system will expand into western, central, and northern parts of Estonia. While the heavy showers are expected to decrease by Tuesday morning, nighttime temperatures will remain mild, staying between 9°C and 15°C.
Lake Peipus Forecast & Marine Warning
A Level 1 Wind Warning is currently active for Lake Peipus, valid from 13:00 today until 02:00 on Tuesday.
- Winds & Waves: North and northeast winds will blow at 4–8 m/s, ramping up to 8 m/s with gusts up to 12 m/s. Wave heights will range between 0.7 and 1.2 metres.
- Conditions: Rain is expected in the afternoon, with a high risk of thunderstorms by evening. Visibility will fluctuate from good to moderate, and the air temperature will hover between 15°C and 17°C.
Looking Ahead: Tuesday, May 19
The unstable weather carries over into Tuesday, bringing a massive temperature contrast across the country.
- Morning: Variable cloud cover with localized rain showers and lingering thunder risks in Western Estonia.
- Afternoon: Thundery showers will become widespread again, bringing locally heavy downpours. Winds will shift from easterly to southerly at 3–9 m/s, with much stronger gusts during storms.
- Temperatures: A surge of warm air will push daytime temperatures up to a summery 18–25°C, reaching as high as 27°C in Eastern Estonia. Meanwhile, the windward coast will remain much colder, ranging from 10°C to 17°C.
The outlook for Wednesday and Thursday shows a return to cooler, more stable conditions, with daytime temperatures averaging 12–23°C and nights dropping to around 5–12°C.
